[Triple,Stress,Loomed,Economic,Outlook,Doomed] Economic的意思
After stepping down as the chief economist of the World Bank, Justine Yifu Lin repeatedly said that the Chinese economic growth rate would maintain at 8% in the next 20 years. However, in some other experts’ opinions, Justine Yifu Lin seemed to be overoptimistic because presently the Chinese economy is facing a lot of problems, primarily the converging attack of three stressful issues.
The first one is the stress from indefinite development goal and the urgency of development. What the main goal of macroeconomic control is remains unclear. What remains unknown includes the goal of limited purchasing and regulation in the real estate industry, as well as the alternative solutions. People are still expecting answers to these important strategic questions, which might come out after the 18th member sessions of the CPC.
The second problem is the contradiction between enlarging domestic demand and ageing and increasing cost. The ageing problem is approaching as many people have recognized the severity of this problem. But what is to be done to address this problem? Ageing means fewer people to take jobs. In addition, the increasing labor cost can depress various industries, further shrinking the income of ordinary people.
The third problem is the huge amount of debts as a result of the development of real estate, mostly due to the credit loans. However, if the development of real estate is suspended, new problem will arise as the eased investment will drag down the economic growth. If the real estate no longer serves as the core of Chinese economy, international environment is to be counted on for the prosperity of Chinese economy. That means China needs a big market. Since it is hard to boost the domestic demand in a short while, international market is going to play an important role as usual.
In addition, there are some minor problems not to be sneezed at. The present development pattern is based on debt and cannot last ten years. These debts could turn to inflation sooner and later. Then, the drop of the current development pattern is unacceptable since it will take a while for the new pattern to be formed and matured. The longer the current development pattern lasts, the more problems will be generated.
The last but not the least problem comes from the social, educational and medical securities. Though they are not new to China, no easy solutions could be found. The Chinese government needs to work harder to address these problems closely related with people’s livelihood.
With so many problems looming, it is not realistic to talk about stable economic growth for 20 years. A series of suggestions have been put forward by both domestic and foreign institutions, experts and scholars. The decision-makers should keep a clear mind to decide which are the best for China and address problems with heart and soul.
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